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Cake day: July 11th, 2023

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  • Data scientist here; there simply are not enough murders to model this, so they will need to use proxies for “likely” murderers (like any sort of violent crime). That means the model will very strongly target people who are over-policed (minorities) and those more likely to actually get caught and charged for things, and thus be in the training data set (poor people). It will also fail spectacularly for this purpose because even a highly accurate model will produce almost 100% false positives -again, because actual murders are so vanishingly rare. The math just doesn’t work.




  • Either he was arrested with no record of the arrest (i.e “disappeared”) which is a new line for the administration to cross, or he disappeared for another reason (by himself, or with help or coercion by a foreign entity like the CCP), and the FBI is investigating.

    I hope journalists keep on this because the first option would be a huge problem that everyone needs to know about, but without more information, the second is also a possibility. The CCP is known to have agents in western countries that manipulate and pressure ex-pats to return to China. Keeping an open mind now will also strengthen the argument if evidence for the former comes to light.