• taanegl@lemmy.world
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    9 months ago

    See, there’s this slow motion guillotine hanging over Putin right now, and for each month of successive losses, it’ll slowly be lowered until it reaches his neck.

    Then, after a new favourite of the oligarchy and the generals have rubbed a few backs and made a few promises, said favourite will come up from behind and place his foot on the blade to force it through Putin’s neck.

    That’s only speculation though.

    • Stalins_Spoon@lemmygrad.ml
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      9 months ago

      I don’t know which world you live in, Ukraine is in political turmoil rn, while UAF conscripts die en masse.

    • CableMonster@lemmy.ml
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      9 months ago

      Dude, the war has been over for over a year, Ukraine lost, they were never going to win, it was just the west trying to use their dead bodies to damage russia.

      • Squizzy@lemmy.world
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        9 months ago

        Russia have lost nearly 400,000 people so far. They’ve crippled their economy and industry, not to mention scuppered any progress they made since the 90s. Ruined their growth in international standing and currently bending over for China and getting reamed on tech for the war by Iran. They have lost countless flagship military installments and their hold over the black sea.

        In the nearly 10 years since their initial invasion they have captured no more than 20% of Ukraine most of which was captured in 2014s Crimean annexation.

        • davel [he/him]@lemmy.ml
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          9 months ago

          Ruined their growth in international standing

          They’ve ruined their standing with the imperial core, while their standing with the semi-periphery and periphery has grown.

          They’ve crippled their economy and industry

          Their industrial capacity has been untouched, and is in fact growing. The Ruble is doing alright, too.
          Bloomberg: Russian Manufacturing Booms With Economy on War Footing

          Russian industry expanded for the third straight year in 2023 as the government’s spending on its prolonged war on Ukraine helped counter the impact of sanctions imposed by the US and its allies.

          Industrial production increased by 3.5% last year after 0.6% growth in 2022, according to data published Wednesday by the Federal Statistics Service. The rise in manufacturing among industries benefiting from military orders last year more than offset a slump in mining output, data show.

          The figures show businesses have adapted to “the current external economic conditions,” the Economy Ministry said in a statement late Wednesday.

          The scale of Russia’s transition into a war economy was underlined by the three fastest-growing categories of manufacturing — which include goods such as bombs and weapons, aircraft and rocket engines, and ships and combat vehicles. Output under categories like “metal goods,” “computers, electronics and optics,” and “other transport” jumped by as much as a third compared to 2022.

          The 1.3% drop from last year in output from extraction industries, like mining, oil and gas, was largely due to a voluntary reduction in oil production, the Economy Ministry said in a separate statement. Russia, in coordination with its OPEC+ allies, pledged last year to reduce its crude production and maintain the cuts through 2024. The country stopped disclosing data on oil output last year.

          The latest data offer some support for recent claims by Russian officials that the country has boosted its military production despite efforts by the Group of Seven and the European Union to break the Kremlin’s war machine through stringent sanctions including an oil price cap. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Monday that production of missiles for air defense systems had doubled, without providing figures. Previously, he said tank production had also increased by seven times.

          The Kremlin plans to keep the economy on a war footing for at least the next three years, according to its budget plans, ramping up spending on arms production. That’s as Ukraine is running short of weapons to protect its cities, and vital aid from the US and the EU has been tied up by political disputes.

          The war, now approaching its third year, has settled into a stalemate, making a steady supply of weapons and munitions crucial to both sides.

          Russian defense plants have been put on round-the-clock production schedules, and reports abound in local media of converted shopping centers and bakeries that now also manufacture military drones. Kalashnikov Concern, Russia’s flagship arms manufacturer, has developed new types of weapons that it plans to present at the World Defense Show 2024 in Saudi Arabia next week, according to state defense-industry conglomerate Rostec.

          Russia has also lined up supplies of weapons and other support from Iran and North Korea. Satellite imagery since October shows a steady flow of trade between North Korea and Russia that South Korea estimates includes more than 2 million rounds of artillery and several ballistic missiles.

          • Squizzy@lemmy.world
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            9 months ago

            They spent a long time building relationships across Europe, growing ties with the west. From sports sponsorships, to infrastructure partnerships to joint ventures like the ISS. They threw all of it away.

            They also made a balls of the invasion, embarrassing themselves, losing a huge amount of high ranking officials and pissed off China in doing so.

            They have tacit support from India because India is getting flooded with cheap oil but that won’t last forever as the Saudis get more and more annoyed and the US continues to ramp up production.

            And their operations in Africa are hampered by an international warrant meaning Putin can’t attend meetings of their new “bloc”.

            They are on a war footing, war booms the economy but their currency is artificially inflated and they have hemorrhaged young graduates and skilled professionals.so manufacturing might be up because every available man is getting paid a pittance to shove artillery together but the workers left in country fear conscription and can’t afford eggs.

  • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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    9 months ago

    Not a single paragraph about the actual demands of Russia. Which they have stated often enough. Basically they don’t want NATO right on their doorstep. This is what this whole war was about. But somehow this is never seriously discussed in western media.

    • Skua@kbin.social
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      9 months ago

      If this war was about having NATO on their doorstep, why is it an invasion of a non-NATO country twenty years after the first neighbours of Russia joined NATO? It’s never seriously discussed because it’s either a lie or unfathomably stupid, and whichever of those two it is doesn’t much matter.

      Just for a second, imagine you’re a neutral country in eastern Europe. Russia has been fucking with Georgia and Moldova since the fall of the Soviet Union, and now it invades Ukraine for the second time within a decade. Russia has never touched a NATO country despite bordering several of them for literally decades. And then Russia acts all shocked when you say you want into NATO

      • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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        9 months ago

        Because Europe never invaded Russia through the border at Belarus. They always invade Russia through Ukraine. First Napoleon, then the Third Reich.

        Russia was appeasing the fascist West as they expanded their multinational nuclear military without democratic accountability into territories populated with leave-behind armies of fascists that they created. Ukraine was the obvious redline because it is the dominant strategic border, as demonstrated by all European and Russian military strategists in history.

        You’re confused about history because you don’t understand it.

      • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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        9 months ago

        Yeah and Russia protested strongly every time. But Ukraine was their red line. Just because you didn’t read it in western media doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

        I don’t condone the invasion but it was predictable and a colossal “failure” of diplomacy if you look at it charitably. At worst it was a long term plan to force Russia into a conflict with the aid of western media to obscure the reason why this war was happening. Russia is acting just like the US would.

        • Skua@kbin.social
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          9 months ago

          So invading Ukraine fixes what for Russia, exactly? The fastest way to make more of Russia’s neighbours join NATO is to show them that they’re safer in NATO. Like Finland.

          Ukrainians mostly weren’t interested in joining NATO until Russia took Crimea. Russia pushed Ukraine towards NATO.

          • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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            9 months ago

            “Ukraine applied to integrate with a NATO Membership Action Plan (MAP) in 2008. Plans for NATO membership were shelved by Ukraine following the 2010 presidential election in which Viktor Yanukovych”. Then the Euromaiden protests happened. Then Crimea etc.

            It’s pretty safe to assume that both Russia and the US meddled in the respective election through NGOs and whatnot. My point is that these are geopolitical games which both sides play and which should be reported as such. Then we’d have a chance to protest for peace negotiations. But as is there is an overwhelming amount of pro-war sentiment.

            • Skua@kbin.social
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              9 months ago

              Public support for joining NATO among polled Ukrainians was very clearly the minority up until Russia invaded.

              But as is there is an overwhelming amount of pro-war sentiment.

              There’s an overwhelming amount of anti-invasion sentiment. People that support arming Ukraine support Ukraine’s right to not have chunks carved out of it just because its neighbour has a bigger army.

            • Vilian@lemmy.ca
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              9 months ago

              they couldn’t join NATO because of crimea, explain what they really want

        • rdri@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          plan to force Russia into a conflict

          Please explain how exactly do you force someone (who suggests to be reasonable) into conflict, basically force them to invade anyone.

          Did the Poland “forced” Hitler to start the WW2 the same way?

          • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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            9 months ago

            Please explain how exactly do you force someone (who suggests to be reasonable) into conflict, basically force them to invade anyone.

            Well imagine if China were to make a military pact with Mexico and started delivering “defensive” weapon systems to them. There would be protests, sanctions, meddling and attempts for regime change, and if those didn’t work there would be invasion.

            For the US to invade another country it actually takes far less. Getting bombed is super easy.

            • rdri@lemmy.world
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              9 months ago

              Imagine justifying real war by imagining things.

              For the US to invade another country it actually takes far less. Getting bombed is super easy.

              These sentences don’t make sense as the response for the quotation.

              • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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                9 months ago

                Do you live in some alternative reality where the US didn’t invade Irak and Afghanistan? And is bombing countries all over the world for whatever reason? Oh let me guess that is TOTALLY different!

          • trebuchet@lemmy.ml
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            9 months ago

            It’s hardly unprecedented. The USA felt forced into an aggressive response to the Soviets putting missiles in Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

            • rdri@lemmy.world
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              9 months ago

              So it was Soviet plan to start the aggression? Is it the same with Finland? When can we expect Putin to invade it?

                • rdri@lemmy.world
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                  9 months ago

                  Read the message you were replying to. I asked specifically how do you force a country to invade a other country (that is not yours). You told about Cuba, so naturally I wanted to confirm if you mean the situation was caused by desire of Soviets to start the aggression.

    • Squizzy@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      It is discussed, it doesn’t stand up to any reasoning as to why they captured the Crimean peninsula. They also stated that it was because Ukraine couldn’t stop the rise of Nazism. So which is it? NATO or Nazis?

      Ukraine is an independent country and if they want to join NATO they can, having a legitimate grievance doesn’t excuse an invasion.

      And even if it was true and was accepted, what a disaster it was because it bolstered a floundering NATO, grew membership and increased military spending across the continent. Truly a genius move.

    • FiskFisk33@startrek.website
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      9 months ago

      Then turning Ukraine into Russian territory is a bit counter productive no? That would literally bring NATO to Russias doorstep.

    • Omega_Haxors@lemmy.ml
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      9 months ago

      My friend it was never about NATO. There is no prospective out there based in fact where NATO has anything to do with it.

        • Skua@kbin.social
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          9 months ago

          By “the Guardian” here what you mean is “an opinion piece from the fucking Cato Institute”

          It was an excellent question, and neither the Clinton administration nor its successors provided even a remotely convincing answer.

          The answers are South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Transnistria

      • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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        9 months ago

        Russia said since 2014 this was about NATO. Even before they protested strongly the NATO expansion. So how can it not be about NATO? You’re either completely uninformed or lying.

        • Omega_Haxors@lemmy.ml
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          9 months ago

          You have the media literacy of a fly. Not even Russia supporters believe this is about NATO.

          • davel [he/him]@lemmy.ml
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            9 months ago

            Uh… yes, we do? I mean not only about NATO, but definitely also about NATO. Even liberals like Jeffrey Sachs and radlibs like Noam Chomsky agree.

            • Omega_Haxors@lemmy.ml
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              9 months ago

              It’s an element but anyone saying the war was started because of NATO is clearly bullshitting. Now if you were to ask why the war is still going on despite both sides wanting peace, NATO is a pretty succinct and accurate explanation.

        • mashbooq@infosec.pub
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          9 months ago

          and US fascists say banning trans people is about protecting children. only a fool believes the narrative of a fascist

          • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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            9 months ago

            Well if you insist on not taking Russia seriously - then you must be very pleased with the result. Maybe you should call Putin a Hitler a few more times, that will solve everything :D

          • Omega_Haxors@lemmy.ml
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            9 months ago

            I’m a Lemmygrad Andy, if there’s any tankie in this conversation, it’s me. Person’s on ee they’re probably only parroting outdated propaganda because they’re a neo-reactionary, (or an outright fascist) not because they’re communist.

            Putin’s agenda of steering the American right into self-destruction to neutralize their geopolitical opponent is going to result in a lot of lot of neo-fascists hitting themselves out of confusion, so keep your eyes open for that.

    • randy@lemmy.ca
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      9 months ago

      Basically they don’t want NATO right on their doorstep.

      NATO is not the anti-Russia club. They’re a defensive pact. Why would you be concerned about your neighbours agreeing to defend each other? Like a neighbourhood watch, perhaps. Maybe you’d be upset if you’re planning to do the thing they’re defending against. Which is all the more reason for those neighbours to band together.

    • rdri@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      I think you’re missing a paragraph that tells how the border between Russia and NATO increased twofold since (and as the result of) the invasion.

      “Hey it’s all about NATO. We always wanted less NATO at our doorsteps, and you can see we tried our best to achieve this. That backfired, yes, but we ask you once again to… Ask all those countries nicely to withdraw from NATO. Having NATO at our borders is not healthy for our people, you see… With all those bio laboratories… And parent№1+parent№2 policy that you force on everyone…”

    • umbrella@lemmy.ml
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      9 months ago

      which is a perfectly reasonable demand.

      but since the US wants blood…

      • Skua@kbin.social
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        9 months ago

        No, demanding your neighbours all remain weak enough for you to continue bullying is not perfectly reasonable at all

          • Skua@kbin.social
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            9 months ago

            All of the countries near Russia that joined NATO did so because they already have their biggest aggressor on their doorsteps.

              • Skua@kbin.social
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                9 months ago

                If buying stuff from the other side is your yardstick, NATO clearly wasn’t a threat to Russia. Germany, Italy, France, and America were all some of Russia’s largest import sources in 2021.

                • umbrella@lemmy.ml
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                  9 months ago

                  which all sounds really dumb if russia was that big of an aggressor in the first place. either that or you know, they werent.

    • Z3k3@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      While that may or may not be the case this does not permit interference of sovereign state from acting in its own best in own best interest.

      • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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        9 months ago

        Agreed - but it does make it somewhat of an “own goal”. The invasion was predictable. Western PR says it was totally surprising but it wasn’t.

    • FatLegTed@feddit.uk
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      9 months ago

      But NATO already is on their doorstep. Norway, Estonia, Poland etc. Even USA is only a few mils away across the Bering Strait.

      This is not about Ukraine joining NATO, that’s a convenience.

    • CultHero@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      This whole shit storm has been about one thing. Putins legacy as the czar that reformed the USSR. That’s it. He wants to lift the iron curtain high once more. It’s all dick stroking by a madman.

  • kookaburra@lemmy.ml
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    9 months ago

    U.S. and Ukrainian officials say that the best Ukraine’s military can hope for in the coming year, especially without more American aid, is to defend its current positions. Even so, Biden officials say they are not entertaining the idea of pressing Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, to negotiate with Mr. Putin.

    This is the most eloquent. If you can’t fight a war for win, then it’s reasonable to try to gain some better results through negotiations. But the white masters don’t care about the losses of aboriginals.

    • rdri@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      Are you implying that white masters exist and implying that a European country can’t decide what’s better for it without consulting with white masters at the same time? Can I say that you are brainwashed by black masters?

    • Mongostein@lemmy.ca
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      9 months ago

      You know who has total power to end this war? Putin. Just get the fuck out of Ukraine and it’s over.

      There’s really nothing to negotiate.

      • naturalgasbad@lemmy.ca
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        9 months ago

        They literally were negotiating at the start of the war for this exact outcome: Russia pulls out and Ukraine maintains neutrality.

        Johnson threw a wrench in those plans.

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          9 months ago

          Sorry what? You’re blaming Boris Johnson for this now?

          One person has the power to put an end to this: the person who started it. Putin.

          • Skua@kbin.social
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            9 months ago

            I’ve seen this Boris Johnson argument several times on here and never once seen anything even remotely approaching a convincing explanation of what leverage Boris ever had to do this. Like a deal for a white peace with Russia was on the table and Boris somehow twisted Zelenskyy’s arm into fighting by threatening to not send weapons that wouldn’t be necessary if there was peace anyway?

        • rdri@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          Ukraine was never going to abort neutrality lol. Being a NATO member does not affect neutrality.

          Also remember the Budapest Memorandum? Ukraine literally gave up nuclear weapons as instructed by Russia, for the promise that was broken.

          I’d say the wrench was thrown by someone else. Or, rather, someone hit their own head by a wrench good enough to lose all mind.

        • Eatspancakes84@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          Do you still believe the UK is the empire where the sun never sets?? How the F would the UK even be able to influence these events.

    • katy ✨@lemmy.blahaj.zone
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      9 months ago

      or because all putin has to do is stop invading ukraine. he doesn’t get to invade and then negotiate to keep part of the place he invaded

      • ComradeChairmanKGB@lemmygrad.ml
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        9 months ago

        he doesn’t get to invade and then negotiate to keep part of the place he invaded

        Are you at all familiar with any history at all? How do you think such treaties usually go? Or did you think borders spent the last couple millenia shifting mysteriously without reason?

        • commandar@kbin.social
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          9 months ago

          The wider international community has largely rejected wars of conquest as legitimate in modern times.

          The exact same argument could be applied to Israel and e.g. the Golan Heights, but I don’t think you’ll find that to be a particularly popular position.

      • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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        9 months ago

        That’s literally how all negotiations work. Hostage negotiations - you take hostages and then negotiate for benefits in exchange for release. War negotiations - you dominate a space and then negotiate for benefits in exchange for ending violence. Unless you’re the USA, where you dominate a region after the majority of forces are already defeated and then when someone tries to negotiate their surrender you nuke 200k civilians.

    • Doesntpostmuch@possumpat.io
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      9 months ago

      Bad take. Why negotiate with an aggressor who is literally invading and trying to absorb a neighbor. You would be rewarding that behavior and Russia gets to stop their unpopular war at the same time.

      • freagle@lemmygrad.ml
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        9 months ago

        Smooth brain take. You can’t negotiate unless there are stakes on both sides. Why are you people so daft?

    • RedditWanderer@lemmy.world
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      9 months ago

      I mean, Putin won’t either, the negotiations are just for gaslighting and propaganda. Basically it’s about not negotiating with terrorists, America has plenty other wars going on and even without Ukraine intends to increase military spending. They don’t need it, but it’s not up to them if it ends.

      • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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        9 months ago

        Basically it’s about not negotiating with terrorists, America has plenty other wars going on

        This level of double think is really amazing. Within one sentence, “US has plenty of wars” -> good guys, Putin has one war -> terrorist, literally Hitler.

        I’m not condoning Putin btw. It’s just baffling all the excuses that are made for US aggression vs Russian aggression. Can you imagine if China put their weapons into Mexico? They’d be stupid to do that. But that’s what Ukraine wants. In the end it’s Ukraine, Russia and the tax payer that looses.

        • Skua@kbin.social
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          9 months ago

          If America was actively attempting to annex Sonora I’d be happy to make the same arguments defending China if it armed Mexico

          • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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            9 months ago

            It’s not about moral arguments or right or wrong. No matter the reason or circumstance, the US would never allow it. Any president not being aggressive about “Chinese weapons on our doorstep” would be ousted. My point is that a decision was made which was a red line for Russia. But we only ever talk about Russia not the deliberate crossing of the red line.

            • Skua@kbin.social
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              9 months ago

              It’s not about moral arguments or right or wrong.

              Or

              It’s just baffling all the excuses that are made for US aggression vs Russian aggression

              It can’t be both. Which is it? Because the point here is that America giving Ukraine weapons is more justified specifically because of Russia’s aggression.

              • LarmyOfLone@lemm.ee
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                9 months ago

                Neither. Both can be wrong. Russia protested and warned about NATO eastward expansion for decades. So what do you do?

                What pretty clearly happened is that certain elements pushed for NATO inclusion and (mostly exclusive!) EU trade well before 2008. Russia pushed for a more Russia friendly regime. Both sides interfered until the result became a devastating war.

                So every sensible person should protest in favor of peace negotiations. But that doesn’t happen. The western media portrays any peace negotiations as useless or as a ploy. I mean read the article.

                • Skua@kbin.social
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                  9 months ago

                  So what do you do?

                  Russia could stop making all of its neighbours feel like they need protection from it, perhaps.

                  (mostly exclusive!) EU trade

                  Alright, please explain to me step-by-step how you expect Ukraine to join two separate and incompatible free trade areas. Because that’s what the argument at the time was about: which FTA to join, the EU-led DCFTA or the Russia-led CISFTA

                  Russia pushed for a more Russia friendly regime

                  “The EU wanted a trade deal with Ukraine and Russia wanted to choose Ukraine’s government.” Why are you acting like these are equivalent?

                  But that doesn’t happen

                  I don’t think it’s my place to tell Ukrainians to submit to subjugation

                • rdri@lemmy.world
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                  9 months ago

                  Russia protested and warned about NATO eastward expansion for decades.

                  As if NATO is an entity that expands by itself huh.

                  Countries. Decide. To join NATO. Recent inclusions only prove that Putin’s struggle is not about NATO at all but about Ukraine. Or, more specifically, about repeating a big win in a small war that would get him whatever his ill brain imagined.

            • mashbooq@infosec.pub
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              9 months ago

              it’s 100% about moral arguments of right and wrong. just because the US’s wars are evil 99% of the time isn’t a reason to reject the one good one

        • rdri@lemmy.world
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          9 months ago

          Can you imagine if China put their weapons into Mexico? They’d be stupid to do that. But that’s what Ukraine wants.

          You’re clueless. Ukraine was precisely correct in its desire for additional protection from aggression.